SCIENTIFIC WRITING

PREDICTION ANALYSIS OF SALES 
CEMENT TONASA AND CEMENT PADANG 
PERIODE DECEMBER 2015 
IN PT.SEMEN INDONESIA (Persero) TBK.

SCIENTIFIC WRITING

Proposed to complement the conditions to reach

equivalent Bachelor degree majoring in Management Level Holders

Faculty Of Economics, Gunadarma University

                        Name                           : Ericha Candra Wahyuni

                        NPM                           : 12213922

                        Department                 : Management

                        Supervisor                   : Christera Kuswahyu Indira, SE., MM.

                                                                                

THE FACULTY OF ECONOMICS

GUNADARMA UNIVERSITY

JAKARTA

2016

ABSTRACTION

Ericha Candra Wahyuni, 12213922

PREDICTION ANALYSIS OF SALES CEMENT TONASA AND CEMENT PADANG PERIODE DECEMBER 2015 IN PT.SEMEN INDONESIA (Persero) TBK.

Scientific Writing, Faculty Of Economics, Gunadarma University.

Keywords : Sales Forecasting

( xi + 38 + attachments )

Forecasting is predicting An attempt to review the situation in the Future through the Past Tests circumstances. Sales foresee Means determine the approximate amount of volume sales, even decisive Potential Sales And Market Size The controlled future Coming.

            In scientific writing, the authors aimed to determine the level of sales during the 2 years of forecasting in December 2015 and know the results of sales forecasting best among the three methods of forecasting that is, methods Moving Average 3 periods, methods Weight Moving Average 3 periods, and Exponential Smoothing to know Semen Tonasa at Semen Padang and Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk.

From the comparison of these studies, it can be a summary of the research that the best method is a method of WMA, because it has the smallest MAD error value between method - any other method. That is, of 52.322 tons for cement forecasting Tonasa and 65,048.15 tons of cement forecasting Padang.

(Bibliography 2000 – 2009)

BAB V

COVER

1          

2          

3          

4          

5          

5.1       Conclutions

From the description Explanation and Discussion on differences, So author takes conclusion Namely, the findings obtained from the prediction Which Method using Moving Average (MA) with 3 periods resulted in forecasting during the month of December 2015 for cements Tonasa between 611,647.55 tonnes until 501,004.55 tonnes. And, for of forecasting cements Padang between 606,799 tonnes until 744,341 tonnes.

The results Obtained from the prediction using WMA 3 Period with weights W1 = 0.5; W2 = 0.3 and W3 = 0.2 yield forecast in December 2015 for cement products Tonasa between 510,731 tonnes until 615,375 tonnes. And, for forecasting Padang cement products between 617,373.85 tonnes until 747,470.15 tonnes.

The results obtained from the prediction with method ES  0.08 produces forecasting in December 2015 for cement products Tonasa between 398.330 tonnes  until 517.336 tonnes. And, for forecasting Padang cement products between 511,873.25 tonnes until 642,586.75 tonnes.

5.2        Suggestions 

Thus we recommend PT. Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk, use WMA Method 3 periods to forecast sales of cement Tonasa and cement Padang. Because, WMA method has an error value between the smallest MAD error from method - any other method.

Based on the results of these calculations, PT. Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk, can predict the sales of cement Tonasa and cement Padang in December 2015. However, in order that the forecasting results is realized, it must be balanced with a look at the state of the inside and outside the company, such as quality of service, price, number of competitors, the strategic location of sales, promotions and new products on the market.